The most-traded SHFE tin contract posts three consecutive negative sessions, dipping to 261,700 yuan. Tin prices are under pressure amid macro disturbances and a weak supply and demand scenario [SMM tin futures brief comment]

The most-traded SHFE tin contract (SN2508): Closing price: 261,610 yuan/mt, down 0.71% intraday (a decrease of 1,950 yuan from the previous day).

Intraday fluctuations: Opened lower at 262,180 yuan/mt, dipped to a low of 260,780 yuan/mt, and rebounded slightly in the tail end but remained under significant pressure. Weekly trend: Three consecutive days of decline, with a cumulative drop exceeding 2.5%, approaching the 60-day moving average support level.

LME tin contract: Currently quoted at $32,795/mt, down 0.54%. The price spread between domestic and overseas markets continues to narrow, with import losses persisting.

US Fed policy expectations fluctuate: Trump denies rumors of firing Powell but criticizes him for "refusing to cut interest rates and dragging down the economy." The US dollar index initially declines but then rises, exacerbating volatility in the metal market.

Tightening of trade policies: Trump announces the sending of general tariff notices to over 150 countries (with a tariff rate slightly exceeding 10%). Negotiations with the EU, Vietnam, etc., have not yielded results, increasing uncertainty in the global supply chain.

Downside risks: If the US dollar rebounds and LME transfers to delivery warehouse increase (with warrant registration after the activation of Hong Kong port inventories), tin prices may test the support level of 258,000 yuan.